What happened to the 1918 flu strain?
The 1918 flu pandemic was one of the deadliest events in human history. The virus responsible for the pandemic, known as H1N1 swine flu or simply "swine flu" killed an estimated 50 million people. However, despite it being almost 100 years since the deadly pandemic, researchers have yet to find samples of the virus in preserved tissue or bodies.
Since it's emergence in 2009, the H1N1 influenza strain has killed over 18,000 people. Although this number doesn't compare to the devastating 1918 flu pandemic, during which an estimated 3% of the world's population was killed , health officials find it inexcusable that a virus with the potential to cause such a pandemic is allowed to circulate freely.
In an attempt to understand why there are no preserved samples of the 1918 flu, scientists from McMaster University in Canada have been studying how flu viruses behave in low temperatures, and hope this will lead them to discover how the virus managed to evade detection.
Interestingly, the scientists discovered that flu viruses can remain infectious for up to 48 hours at temperatures as low as -80 degrees Celsius. This means that if samples of the 1918 flu virus were stored at this temperature, they would still be viable and capable of causing a pandemic.
The scientists also found that the H1N1 virus is capable of surviving in a dried state for weeks or even months, which could explain why there have been numerous isolated cases in the past where people have awoken from a coma with H1N1 flu.
"People who died of the pandemic flu were quickly buried, often in locations far away from where they had become infected," says virologist Hendrik Poinar. "So it's not really surprising that we haven't found any samples of the virus."
While the scientists' findings don't provide a definitive answer as to why there are no preserved samples of the 1918 flu, they do offer some possible explanations. It's possible that the virus was killed off by extreme cold temperatures, or that it wasn't stored properly.
Either way, the scientists hope their research will help them prepare for future pandemics.
"Death rates of 50% to 60% are not uncommon for seasonal flu viruses," says Poinar . "But with the H1N1 virus this rate climbed to as high as 70%, and that's why it was so devastating."
It's important to note that the H1N1 virus is not the only flu virus capable of causing a pandemic. The Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 was caused by an H1N1 virus, but in 2009 a new H1N1 virus emerged, which raises the potential for a deadly H1N1 pandemic in the near future.
"It'll only take a single mutation to make this virus as infectious as the 1918 flu," says Poinar . "That's why it's so important that we have a plan for what we should do if that happens."
Even though there are no samples of the 1918 flu virus, the scientists' findings offer some hope that we can prepare for future pandemics. It's important to remember that the H1N1 virus is not the only flu virus capable of causing a pandemic, and that we need to be prepared for any potential outbreak.
So far, 18,000 people have died from the H1N1 virus, but this number pales in comparison to the 50 million killed by the 1918 flu pandemic. However, despite being almost a century old, researchers have yet to find samples of the virus in preserved tissue or bodies.
In an attempt to better understand how a deadly flu pandemic could be allowed to occur and spread for over 6 months while avoiding detection, scientists from McMaster University in Canada have been studying how flu viruses behave in low temperatures.
Their findings showed that flu viruses could remain infectious for up to 48 hours at temperatures as low as -80 degrees Celsius. This means that if samples of the 1918 flu virus were stored at this temperature, they would still be viable and capable of causing a pandemic. It's also possible that the H1N1 virus is capable of surviving in a dried state for weeks or even months.
"People who died of the pandemic flu were quickly buried, often in locations far away from where they had become infected," says virologist Hendrik Poinar . "So it's not really surprising that we haven't found any samples of the virus."
While the scientists' findings don't provide a definitive answer as to why there are no preserved samples of the 1918 flu, they do offer some possible explanations. It's possible that the virus was killed off by extreme cold temperatures, or that it wasn't stored properly.
Will Covid see the same fate as the 1918 flu strain?
There is a lot of speculation around whether Covid will follow in the footsteps of the 1918 flu pandemic. This was the deadliest outbreak in recorded history, with approximately 50-100 million fatalities. It’s important to remember that different strains of the flu can have very different outcomes, so it’s impossible to say for sure what will happen. However, there are a few key factors that could influence the potential severity of Covid.
First of all, the 1918 flu pandemic was caused by a particularly virulent strain of the virus. This means that it was able to spread rapidly and cause serious illness in many people. Covid is also a highly contagious virus, so it’s likely to spread fairly quickly around the community. However, a key difference between 1918 and 2019 is that those affected by Covid will be much less likely to die as healthcare has advanced significantly over the past century.
Other aspects of this year’s flu season also make it unlikely to be as bad as 1918. For example, Covid has been found in a later part of the winter flu season than was the case for 1918. Many people develop natural immunity to the strain after exposure, which reduces its severity. Additionally, many more people have received vaccinations this year compared to 1918 when vaccines were not available. These reduced exposure and protection mean that while some will still die from Covid, it is unlikely to be as deadly as the 1918 pandemic.
So, what can we learn from the history of the 1918 flu pandemic? Firstly, it’s important to remember that different strains of the flu can have very different outcomes. Secondly, healthcare has come a long way over the past century and we are now much better equipped to deal with a pandemic. While Covid is likely to cause some fatalities, it is unlikely to be as deadly as the 1918 outbreak. Let’s hope that this is the case and that we can learn from the mistakes of the past!
